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The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction

by Nate Silver
The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction
The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction

Unraveling truth within data, predicting complex futures.

If you've ever been curious about the magic and science behind accurate predictions, "The Signal and the Noise" by Nate Silver could be your crystal ball. Silver, a maestro in the art of discerning meaningful patterns from a cacophony of data, offers a compelling dive into the intricacies of forecasts in various fields. You'll be welcomed into a world where understanding probability and an embrace of uncertainty can dramatically elevate the precision of our predictions, whether you're a statistician or a curious reader. This book is about refining our lens on the world, a must-read for anyone who values data-driven decision making.

  • Goodreads Choice Award Nominee for Nonfiction (2012)
  • Phi Beta Kappa Award in Science (2013)
Note: While we do our best to ensure the accuracy of cover images, ISBNs may at times be reused for different editions of the same title which may hence appear as a different cover.

The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction

by Nate Silver
Condition guide

Book Condition Guide

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This book may contain very minor cosmetic defects, but it is in pristine condition. There should be no yellowing, no foxing, no water damage, and no annotations of any kind on the cover and the pages. For paperbacks, there should not be any crease marks on the spine. This book is good as new — lucky you!

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*Books may be missing bundle media (e.g. CD, e-book code), if included.

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This is a well-read book, which means that the previous owner probably really enjoyed it! The cover and pages may include moderate foxing and annotations, but the text is not obscured and still readable. Moderate cosmetic defects and minor water damage may be present on the edges of the book. For paperbacks, there may be multiple crease marks on the spine.

*Books may be missing bundle media (e.g. CD, e-book code), if included.

 

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ISBN: 9781846147524
Authors: Nate Silver
Publisher: Allen Lane
Date of Publication: 2012-09-01
Format: Hardcover
Related Collections: Science, Economics, Sociology, Politics, Business
Related Topics: Psychology, Mathematics, Finance, Sociology, Social Science, Politics, Economics, Sociology, Finance
Goodreads rating: 3.97
(rated by 49944 readers)

Description

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger--all by the time he was thirty. "The New York Times" now publishes "FiveThirtyEight.com," where Silver is one of the nation's most influential political forecasters. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox" The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good--or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated
 

Unraveling truth within data, predicting complex futures.

If you've ever been curious about the magic and science behind accurate predictions, "The Signal and the Noise" by Nate Silver could be your crystal ball. Silver, a maestro in the art of discerning meaningful patterns from a cacophony of data, offers a compelling dive into the intricacies of forecasts in various fields. You'll be welcomed into a world where understanding probability and an embrace of uncertainty can dramatically elevate the precision of our predictions, whether you're a statistician or a curious reader. This book is about refining our lens on the world, a must-read for anyone who values data-driven decision making.

  • Goodreads Choice Award Nominee for Nonfiction (2012)
  • Phi Beta Kappa Award in Science (2013)
Note: While we do our best to ensure the accuracy of cover images, ISBNs may at times be reused for different editions of the same title which may hence appear as a different cover.