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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

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A mind-bending guide to unpredictable reality

If you like books that permanently alter how you see success, failure, luck, and history, this one really sticks. Taleb is sharp, provocative, and often brilliantly unsettling, making you question how much of life is driven by forces we only understand in hindsight. It’s especially rewarding for curious readers who enjoy big ideas, risk, psychology, and arguments that challenge comfortable assumptions.

  • Financial Times Business Book of the Year Nominee for Shortlist (2007)
Note: While we do our best to ensure the accuracy of cover images, ISBNs may at times be reused for different editions of the same title which may hence appear as a different cover.
Just Arrived

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Regular price $9.90
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per
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ISBN: 9781846140457
Publisher: Allen Lane
Date of Publication: 2007-06-01
Format: Paperback
Goodreads rating: 3.96
(rated by 124151 readers)

Description

Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a concept that will change the way you look at the world. Black swans underlie almost everything, from the rise of religions to events in our own lives. A Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principles: it is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. And why do we ignore the phenomenon of Black Swans until after they occur? As Nassim Nicholas Taleb reveals, we are hard-wired not to truly estimate risk, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and shows us how to face the world.
 

A mind-bending guide to unpredictable reality

If you like books that permanently alter how you see success, failure, luck, and history, this one really sticks. Taleb is sharp, provocative, and often brilliantly unsettling, making you question how much of life is driven by forces we only understand in hindsight. It’s especially rewarding for curious readers who enjoy big ideas, risk, psychology, and arguments that challenge comfortable assumptions.

  • Financial Times Business Book of the Year Nominee for Shortlist (2007)
Note: While we do our best to ensure the accuracy of cover images, ISBNs may at times be reused for different editions of the same title which may hence appear as a different cover.