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Future Babble : Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe them Anyway

by Dan Gardner
$13.32
Future Babble : Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe them Anyway - Thryft
Future Babble : Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe them Anyway - Thryft
Note: While we do our best to ensure the accuracy of cover images, ISBNs may at times be reused for different editions of the same title which may hence appear as a different cover.

Future Babble : Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe them Anyway

by Dan Gardner
$13.32
ISBN: 9780753522363
Authors: Dan Gardner
Publisher: Virgin Publishing
Date of Publication: 2011-01-01
Format: Paperback
Related Collections: Economics, Science, Politics, History, Sociology
Related Topics: Sociology, Finance, Popular Science, Psychology, Sociology, History, Politics, Politics, Economics, History
Goodreads rating: 3.79
(rated by 709 readers)

Description

In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future--everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely they are to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
Condition guide

Book Condition Guide

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This book may contain very minor cosmetic defects, but it is in pristine condition. There should be no yellowing, no foxing, no water damage, and no annotations of any kind on the cover and the pages. For paperbacks, there should not be any crease marks on the spine. This book is good as new — lucky you!

*Books may be missing bundle media (e.g. CD, e-book code), if included.

Books in Very Good Condition

This book has been used, but it is still in a clean condition. There should be no foxing or annotations of any kind on the inner pages, but a sparse amount may be present on the cover, title pages, or outside edges of the book. There should be no water damage of any kind. For paperbacks, there may be light crease marks on the spine.

*Books may be missing bundle media (e.g. CD, e-book code), if included.

Books in Good Condition

We do our best to ensure the quality of our books, but there is no escaping the wear and tear that comes with time. Slight foxing and some annotations may be present on the pages and the cover. There should be no water damage of any kind. For paperbacks, there may be several crease marks on the spine.

*Books may be missing bundle media (e.g. CD, e-book code), if included.

Books in Well Read Condition

This is a well-read book, which means that the previous owner probably really enjoyed it! The cover and pages may include moderate foxing and annotations, but the text is not obscured and still readable. Moderate cosmetic defects and minor water damage may be present on the edges of the book. For paperbacks, there may be multiple crease marks on the spine.

*Books may be missing bundle media (e.g. CD, e-book code), if included.

 

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Note: While we do our best to ensure the accuracy of cover images, ISBNs may at times be reused for different editions of the same title which may hence appear as a different cover.