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New

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

by Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
$9.90
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Honing predictive skills with elite forecasters' insights.

If you're intrigued by how some people can seemingly predict the future better than trained experts, "Superforecasting" might just be the eye-opener you need. Tetlock's examination of the astonishingly accurate 'average Joes' blends the thrill of discovering hidden talents with practical techniques to sharpen your own forecasting abilities. It's not just about predicting—it's about enhancing decision-making in all facets of life.

  • Financial Times Business Book of the Year Nominee for Longlist (2015)
Note: While we do our best to ensure the accuracy of cover images, ISBNs may at times be reused for different editions of the same title which may hence appear as a different cover.
New

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

by Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
$9.90
Condition guide

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*Books may be missing bundle media (e.g. CD, e-book code), if included.

 

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ISBN: 9781847947154
Authors: Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
Publisher: Random House Books
Date of Publication: 2019-01-01
Format: Paperback
Related Collections: Personal Development, Business, Science, Politics, Economics
Related Topics: Personal Development, Psychology, Business, Personal Development, Self Help, Finance, Psychology, Mathematics, Finance
Goodreads rating: 4.08
(rated by 21988 readers)

Description

The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow. What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing jobs, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether
 

Honing predictive skills with elite forecasters' insights.

If you're intrigued by how some people can seemingly predict the future better than trained experts, "Superforecasting" might just be the eye-opener you need. Tetlock's examination of the astonishingly accurate 'average Joes' blends the thrill of discovering hidden talents with practical techniques to sharpen your own forecasting abilities. It's not just about predicting—it's about enhancing decision-making in all facets of life.

  • Financial Times Business Book of the Year Nominee for Longlist (2015)
Note: While we do our best to ensure the accuracy of cover images, ISBNs may at times be reused for different editions of the same title which may hence appear as a different cover.